In August 2025, the United States imposed a 39% tariff on Swiss industrial goods. With the US accounting for 16.5% of Swiss merchandise exports, this marks one of the most significant trade shocks in recent history for Switzerland.

The study, “Impacts of US 39% Tariffs on Swiss Export Industry,” shows that Swiss exports to the United States are projected to fall by USD 9.5 billion, cutting the bilateral trade surplus from USD 38.3 billion to USD 27.8 billion. Swiss firms are expected to lose around USD 4 billion in profits, with the burden heavily concentrated in iconic sectors such as watches, jewelry, precision instruments, and machinery.

“Switzerland’s export model is under real pressure,” says Dr. Zoller-Rydzek. “The results show that tariffs of this magnitude can significantly reduce trade flows and corporate profits, and the economic pain is concentrated in just a few high-value industries.”

The policy brief not only quantifies the economic burden but also points to strategic responses. In the short term, targeted subsidies and credit support for SMEs could help firms maintain access to the US market. In the long term, Switzerland must diversify export markets, deepen trade agreements—particularly with the EU—and strengthen domestic innovation to build resilience in an era of rising protectionism.