Geopolitical Risks in a Fragmented Global Economy (USCNST)

Thanks to a newly developed stress test, Swiss companies can systematically assess their geopolitical resilience and identify risks at an early stage.

Result

Key data

Result

Developed in collaboration with the Swiss export promotion organization (S-GE), the stress test was presented at the International Trade Forum 2025. The tool enables Swiss companies to analyze how different scenarios of economic and geopolitical decoupling between the United States and China impact their risk profile.

Description

The project examines scenarios of global economic fragmentation, with a particular focus on geopolitical risks arising from the increasingly complex relationship between China and the United States. It assesses the implications of these developments for the international activities of Swiss companies and identifies potential adjustments to their business models.

The aim of the research is to provide Swiss companies with strategic tools to manage geopolitical risks and strengthen their resilience in a fragmented global marketplace. The project resulted in the development of an online stress-testing tool that enables companies to assess their exposure to different geopolitical scenarios and adapt their international strategies accordingly.