Is the EU a security provider in Europe in 2025? The EU’s new foreign policy towards peace in Ukraine in challenging circumstances

The European Union (EU) – an organization founded to secure peace and prosperity in Europe – has been grappling with major security challenges for at least a decade. When Russia attacked Ukraine in 2014, the EU's foreign and security policy was still in its infancy. However, Russia's invasion of Ukraine on February 24, 2022, posed a far greater threat to Europe. Although the EU now had a wide range of foreign policy instruments at its disposal and was rapidly developing more, overall, more could have been done – and indeed needed to be done.

Donald Trump's second presidency in 2025 created uncertainty regarding US support for Ukraine, deterrence of Russia, and the viability of the Euro-Atlantic partnership. The “ReArm Europe” plan was introduced, the white paper was drafted, and the EU has since been trying to make its voice heard in the peace negotiations on Ukraine. But was the EU able to play a key role in building peace in Europe from 2025 onwards in cooperation with its partners? Is the EU capable of transforming itself in such a way that it follows its declared principles and ensures a just peace in Ukraine?

The project draws on theories of EU agency and uses data from expert interviews, official documents, and statistical analyses to evaluate the measures taken by the EU to establish peace in Europe by 2025. The aim is to look to the future and draw up a plan for how the EU, together with its European partners, could become a guarantor of security in Europe from 2025 onwards by jointly creating a just peace in Ukraine.